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Prognosis of the World Development between 2000 and 2030

Victor Feller
rostfond@nursat.kz

XI. Outlook Of The Stock Markets, Russia And Kazakhstan, 2000-05.

Could transactions with industrial property or stock exchange operations be something of promising in Kazakhstan in 2000-10? I see it as highly improbable, for the oligarchic capitalism and disrespect for rights of private property, as well as Soviet-time habit of expropriating "ownerless" wealth, together with the attempts to self-isolate from Russia, is not likely to create favorable climate for stock market. Despite high rates of growth, Kazakhstan will be still having too little of private funds for export, while state-owned capital, which will be dominant, cannot lay foundation for the stock market. Private funds, which will be flowing in from Hong Kong and Shanghai by 2015, as well as Korean or Japanese, will hardly make any difference, as they will be of negligible volume, "uncivilized", and coming too late.

In Russia, where a boom in corporate bonds market has already begun in 1999, blue chips index will have almost trebled by the end of 1999. In 2000, it will double, reaching its maximum numbers of 1997. During the year 2001, the index will rise almost 30 percent, to fall down at the end of year because of aggravating relations with the West. During 2002-05, the stock exchange index will rise in sum 50 to 80 percent and make 1.5 times as much as in 1997, despite the instability of governmental policies regulating various kinds of investment. Considering generally steady development of the economy of Russia in 2004-05, one may be safe to assume that previous collapses, with stock prices falling down 3 to 4 times and catastrophic strains on liquidity, will become a thing of the past. By 2010, the stock exchange index in Russia will rise another 150 percent, provided that the government pursues a rightist or center-right policy all the while.

In 2001-02 bonds of defense and engineering companies will go up considerably - however, only on condition that the lefts will not promptly nationalize those industries.

As for Kazakhstan, the market for the blue chips will emerge in 2000, only to be taken over immediately by several privileged banks and brokerage houses. This state of things can not last long, and in 2002 Kazakhstan’s securities market will be democratized under the influence of both stock market in Russia and the pressure of foreign investors and pension funds. Also the essentiality of supporting private portfolio investments will play its role, their inflow, whatever little (about $200mn in 2002, $400mn in 2003, and $500mn in 2004), being crucial for Kazakhstan’s development. In 2001, the stock exchange index will rise 1.5 - 1.8 times, during 2002 - 1.5 times and beyond. However, in contrast to Russia, the continuing rise of the blue chips will be nearly limited, in 2005, to the stocks of giant resource-extracting companies.

XII. Conclusions, Or How To Look Upon This Prognosis.

I would like you not to take it too seriously, or to believe it to be a kind of a plan. History, especially that of shorter periods of time, is made by personalities together with coincidences. If it were not for Lenin, the Communist experiment couldn’t last long, and Bolsheviks would have broken their backs already at the time of the Brest-Litovsk peace treaty.

Accordingly, there is a possibility of history going its own way, with, say, extremists coming to power in Russia in 2000, or an unexpected nuclear war breaking out between India and Pakistan, a huge meteorite falling down on Earth, or an unknown disease taking thousands of lives, etc. Or, on the contrary, thermonuclear power plants may be constructed already at the beginning of the 2010s, or a sage may come to power in China and made it give up all kinds of expansion, except commercial one, to lead the world towards global disarmament by 2030.

The above sketch of the world development in 2000-30 is only one of the possible scenarios, one of the most feasible models. I’m far from idealizing the world-to-be, but I believe this future of mine is quite a reasonable one, good to live in and giving possibilities to achieve what you hope for.

The main purpose of my research has been to create a kind of concept, a vision of the future, rather than accurate prognosis. My scheme may be changed or widened, as the time goes on, according to the facts and events of real history. I have based it on the trends in global development I believe to be the most probable and sure ones. I have been assuming that the ruling elites of different nations would behave in a reasonable way, that no extraordinarily devastating cataclysms would happen on Earth or, if there will be any, their effect would be shortly neutralized. For such an optimistic hope, I’ve got solid grounds, concealed in the history of 1945-99.

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© Dmitry Alemasov

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