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Prognosis of the World Development between 2000 and 2030

Victor Feller
rostfond@nursat.kz

VIII. Rate Of The Economy Growth In Russia In 2000-10.

The rate of the growth of economy of Russia will reach an average of 3 to 5 percent a year between 2000 and 2002, and 7-9 percent between 2003 and 2006, due to the expansion of Russian engineering and other basic industries into the markets of developing countries (China, India, etc.). Problems accumulated during the years 2007-10 will slow the rates down to 5-6 percent.

The GDP will grow 1.8 times between 2000 and 2010. In 2000-05 the changes will be mostly made to replace the capacities or provide for their organic growth. It will lead to a slowdown in economy after a short time, due to bad competitive abilities of "recovered" technologies. In 2006-10 the growth will become purely organic. Competitive small and medium-sized businesses (mainly, those of consumable goods and food processing, construction, automobile industry, metalworking, chemistry and services industry) will be dominating the economy, their rate of growth determining that of the economy as a whole, their modernization making Russia able to compete in the world market.

High rates of growth (1.8 times during the 2010s) will depend on what political forces come to power. In case it were the Communists (even if they keep up for five years only), Russia may slow down her rate of growth considerably. Under those circumstances she will be back at square one by the end of the decade, with only 50 to 60 percent growth and a lag of some two or three years. The centrist-lefts would also create a highly inefficient and parasitical system of administrating the economy, which will go through several stages of reform, beginning from 2005. Nevertheless, the tempo of growth will remain slower than the "normal" one, making only 50 or 60 percent in ten years. The center-rights, if not induced to wage local wars with smaller nations, will be able to provide for "normal" growth rates and double increase in production, on condition that they will not be too idealistic to let opposition win the field. If they follow thoroughgoing reforms in 2000-02, then slow the tempo in order to consolidate the society, and then push forward again, beginning from 2005, the economy growth may exceed 100 percent by 2010, and solid foundations may be laid for quick economic development in the second decade of the century.

IX. General Conclusions (2000-30).

The picture drafted in this research may seem one-dimensional; except the geopolitical aspect of the world development, no other side of life (political, economic, ecological, cultural, or technological) is made an object of close scrutiny. Nevertheless, the struggle between superpowers will remain the linchpin of international relations and the thread of intrigue in the twenty-first century as well. The "end of history", in this sense, is not to be expected even by the year 2050. In the first half of the century, it’s global superpowers, rather than international organizations, ideologies, multinational corporations, classes, or political parties that will be main protagonists on the world scene. In 2000-30, the U.S. and China will play a deep game between themselves, with, perhaps, 2 or 3 more nations coming onto the stage. Democratic institutions (parliament, multi-party system, independent judiciary, etc.) will gain a strong foothold in practically all the core states of both international blocs. However, the democracy in Russia and in the Pacific bloc will remain restrained by authoritarianism for some twenty years after the beginning of the century.

In the 2000s and the 2010s, environmental problems will reach the level of a global catastrophe. The world will experience a "Flood" and the results of depletion of the ozone layer, as well as global epidemics caused by mutant viruses and proteins, which will resemble a recurrence of Middle Ages plagues. The chain of disasters will make advanced countries redirect their foreign policy from opposition to cooperation; yet changes will take all of the 2020s to be completed.

Russia will preserve her territorial integrity, whatever dependent as it will be on the goodwill of the U.S. and Japan, on the one part, and China, on the other. In the 2010s, Russia will quickly reanimate her heavy industry and sell China $60-80bn worth of defense technologies and licenses, as well as $20-30bn worth of engineering goods. More than a half of new military technologies, developed in Russia from the year 2000 on, will be delivered to the southern neighbor. The "friendship" will end after 2010, but not forever, to be continued after a short period of alienation. This kind of a situation will continue in turns, Russia being episodically reminded she depends on China on many points, including the territorial issue. After last effects of the conflict between two superpowers in Asia and Africa are get rid of in 2028, Russia will make its choice in favor of Europe, and try to make a "bridge between civilizations" out of herself. She will have to put up with economic dominance of China, Korea and Japan on the Far East, Siberia, Central Asia and the Caucasus markets.

Kazakhstan will be following in Russia’s footsteps - from the "Great Friendship" with China in the 2000s, through active economic cooperation with the same in the 2010s, to balancing between Russia, China and Europe at the end. By 2030 Kazakhstan will finally feel all the advantages of its geographical setting and become at once an agent of Chinese influence in Asia and Russia, and a bridge to China, a bridge between the East and the West.

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